Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 18 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 175 daily closes on record from 18 Oct 2025 to 1 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47.5% on 18 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 18% on 3 Nov 2025. $243.17K traded over the market's life.
166 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 11:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 175 points, 18 Oct 2025 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 | 47.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 2.5K |
| Mr.Fister | Yes | 1.6K |
| Soggy-Preference | Yes | 1.41K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-12
| Stiff-Perch-Poet | Yes | 1.32K |
| xlefgerx | Yes | 1.01K |
| Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | Yes | 720.02 |
| spaceb3t | Yes | 626.78 |
| Misty Raven A37F | Yes | 530.22 |
| Jaded-Displacement | Yes | 506.85 |
| Enraged-Gram | Yes | 499.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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