Will the Centre Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 4, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$44.4K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 4, 2024 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 4 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 21 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2024 to 4 Dec 2024, the highest close was 50% on 21 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 15% on 22 Nov 2024. $44.35K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 4, 4:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 21 Nov 2024 – 4 Dec 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Nov 2024	50.0%
4 Dec 2024	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	20.58K
Apeman	Yes	1.9K
Comebackkid	Yes	1.77K

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections will be held in Iceland on November 30, 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Centre Party (M, Miðflokkurinn) wins the most seats in the Icelandic Parliament a result of the next Icelandic parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Social Democratic Alliance, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the election results from the Icelandic Government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Landskjörstjórn, https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn).