Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 7 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 7 Nov 2025 to 12 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50% on 7 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 12 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 7.5% on 8 Nov 2025. $90.26K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 12, 10:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 7 Nov 2025 – 12 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 12 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 18.06K |
| untaken | Yes | 338.66 |
| Glorbius | Yes | 303.44 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin by which Proposition 50 is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the certified statewide vote share in favor (“pro”) minus the certified statewide vote share against (“contra”) the proposition. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Proposition 50 does not receive more pro than contra votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the State of California.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-prop-50-winning-margin
| Yes |
| 300 |
| Impure-Contour | Yes | 200 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 139.57 |
| Winding-Eponym | Yes | 128.28 |
| juvenalluna1 | Yes | 107.24 |
| Darling-Hill | Yes | 100 |
| luuuur | Yes | 56 |
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