Analytics
Yes is at 91%, about where the market opened on 3 Sep 2026.
The high was 92.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the low 91% on 11 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 91.5%; a month ago, 92.5%.
It is one of 2 markets under “When will the Bitcoin halving occur?”.
$9.77 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $464.51, with a 12.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is eCash with 8 shares; the largest No position is Solar Kestrel 08DC with 7.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 6, 3:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 35 points · 3 Sep 2026 – 6 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 86%–98%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | 91.5% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 91.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| eCash | Yes | 7.71 |
| Solar Kestrel 08DC | No | 6.67 |
| AJSV | No | 2.06 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next Bitcoin halving occurs by the date specified in the title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The next Bitcoin halving refers to the mining of Bitcoin block 1,050,000, the block at which the Bitcoin network’s block subsidy is next scheduled to be reduced by half. The resolution source is mempool.space (https://mempool.space), specifically the “Timestamp” value displayed on the page for block 1,050,000 once it has been mined, converted to Eastern Time. For an example of where the “Timestamp” value is displayed on a block’s page, see this earlier block: https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001e019fb455cb292d5ba5b41ebfad92ab4e0f378e83d25. This market is based solely on the “Timestamp” value displayed on mempool.space for block 1,050,000, not on network propagation or observation times, data from third-party explorers, or unofficial sources. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source, such as another Bitcoin block explorer, or public data consistent with the Bitcoin blockchain.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-bitcoin-halving-occur
| Jade Pioneer 5DB3 |
| Yes |
| 1.02 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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