Analytics
Yes is at 52%, up 12 points from 40% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
Across the 47 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63.5% on 14 Sep 2026 and the lowest 38.5% on 19 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 53.5%; a month before, 46.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 42.5% on 15 Sep 2026.
No Change is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Bank of Canada Decision in December?”, ahead of 25 bps increase at 44.5%.
$20.99K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $55.18K since listing. The order book holds $7.73K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $7.04K bought Yes and $7.29K bought No; the largest was a $1.87K sell of Yes at 60.1¢.
The largest Yes position is ps5 with 11.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 24.7K. Ten wallets hold 92.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Dec 2026, 40 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 40.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 52.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 24.74K |
| ps5 | Yes | 11.88K |
| strider- | Yes | 4K |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Official listing:
| Bigggggggg |
| Yes |
| 3.42K |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | 1.37K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 1.29K |
| podairpod | Yes | 1.08K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 878.22 |
| ABC12345654321 | Yes | 851.5 |
| donthackme | No | 568.73 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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