Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 89.8%. Yes opened at 14% on 17 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 101 daily closes on record from 17 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89.8% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 28 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 66 points up, to 81.5% on 20 Oct 2026. $232.65K traded over the market's life.
102 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 29, 3:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 101 points, 17 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2026 | 14.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 89.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 61.78K |
| AMike | No | 9.08K |
| anoin123 | No | 5.42K |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Official listing:
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 3.77K |
| narfsnarf | No | 3.13K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 2.36K |
| Ivory Falcon 7463 | No | 2K |
| Kosherkid | No | 1.01K |
| Rowdy-Picket | No | 479.99 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 438.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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