Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$25.1K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 30, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 8% on 17 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 17 Jun 2025 to 30 Jul 2025, the highest close was 8% on 17 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.1 points down, to 0.9% on 18 Jun 2025. $25.06K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 4:40 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 17 Jun 2025 – 30 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
17 Jun 2025	8.0%
30 Jul 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	13.18K
ethicalcryptoguy	Yes	2.98K
Physical-Goodnight	Yes	1.17K

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's July 2025 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its July 30, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada releases its interest rate decision following the July 24, 2025 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by August 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Resolution source: https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.9lNpPbozsZN19SDhLq4fzAAAAA?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain