Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting?

Resolved

Yes, settled Oct 29, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$113.8K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 29, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 29 Oct 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 91.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 19 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2025 to 29 Oct 2025, the highest close was 95% on 25 Oct 2025 and the lowest 46% on 15 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 48.5% on 11 Oct 2025. $113.79K traded over the market's life.

27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 31, 12:32 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 19 Sep 2025 – 29 Oct 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Sep 2025	50.0%
29 Oct 2025	91.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	20.62K
Composed-Trouble	No	10K
sanalid	No	7.02K

10 of 27 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's October 2025 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its October 29, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.