Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 17 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 17 Jun 2025 to 30 Jul 2025, the highest close was 40.5% on 17 Jun 2025 and the lowest 1.7% on 29 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 13.5% on 18 Jun 2025. $34.69K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 4:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 17 Jun 2025 – 30 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jun 2025 | 40.5% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 13.18K |
| Physical-Goodnight | Yes | 511.79 |
| JoE | Yes | 472.96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's July 2025 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its July 30, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada releases its interest rate decision following the July 24, 2025 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by August 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolution source: https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.9lNpPbozsZN19SDhLq4fzAAAAA?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-interest-rates-july-2025
| Yes |
| 450 |
| stiviofitaly | Yes | 427.75 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 283 |
| JSilverBBQ | Yes | 257.1 |
| Hussainjuma | Yes | 255 |
| Sinful-Buckle | Yes | 100 |
| ethicalcryptoguy | Yes | 100 |
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