Analytics
Yes is at 6.4%, down 13 points from 19% when the market opened on 5 Aug 2026.
The high was 19% on 5 Aug 2026 and the low 0.4% on 17 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.4%; a month ago, 5.1%. Its largest one-day move was 8.1 points down, to 6.2% on 7 Oct 2026.
50+ bps decrease ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “Bank of Brazil decision in November?”. 25 bps decrease leads at 89.5%; No Change is at 4.8%.
$477.86 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.25K since listing. The order book holds $4.01K, with a 2.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 264 trades, $203.18 bought Yes and $2.75K bought No.
The largest Yes position is MFS-000 with 818 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.2K. Ten wallets hold 83.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 26 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 3:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 67 points · 5 Aug 2026 – 9 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | 19.0% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 6.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.18K |
| MFS-000 | Yes | 818.35 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 505.81 |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-november-1785878499354
| Johnsansculotte |
| Yes |
| 299.23 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 257.85 |
| rafuchos | Yes | 217.54 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 180 |
| Insubstantial-Misunderstand | No | 139.65 |
| rocky42025 | Yes | 124 |
| newmasterroshi | Yes | 120.38 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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