Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 45%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 15 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 15 Apr 2026 to 21 Apr 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80% on 20 Apr 2026 and the lowest 29.5% on 15 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 55% on 21 Apr 2026. $8.94K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 22, 5:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 15 Apr 2026 – 21 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2026 | 29.5% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | 55.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.36K |
| Nostdam | Yes | 1.21K |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 199.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-19
| Yes |
| 48.27 |
| Rewarding-Alto | Yes | 38 |
| Onamedo | Yes | 34.89 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 30.03 |
| asdssss | Yes | 30 |
| Second-Hand-Presume | Yes | 25 |
| animal.bean | Yes | 22.53 |
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