Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 65%. Yes opened at 53% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 10 Sep 2026, the highest close was 65% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 51.5% on 5 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 64.5% on 8 Sep 2026. $455.71 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 23, 1:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 10 Sep 2026, chart shows 45%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 53.0% |
| 10 Sep 2026 | 65.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-5-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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