Analytics
Yes is at 99.5%, up 4.5 points from 95% when the market opened on 16 Jan 2026.
Across the 278 daily closes on record from 16 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 87.5% on 22 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 99%; a month before, 97.8%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 89% on 18 Jan 2026.
$125.82K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.18M since listing. The order book holds $211.33K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $265.41K bought Yes and $6.88K bought No; the largest was a $37.78K buy of Yes at 98.0¢.
The largest Yes position is elmcap2 with 428.1K shares; the largest No position is HoneybeeAlliance with 188.8K. Ten wallets hold 71.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 278 points, 16 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 85%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | 95.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 99.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| elmcap2 | Yes | 428.1K |
| HoneybeeAlliance | No | 188.84K |
| Vgsps11 | No | 100.06K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled
| Quiet Pulse 3376 |
| No |
| 92.38K |
| DFK | Yes | 47.64K |
| Ondra | No | 41.68K |
| tompekka7 | No | 29.48K |
| 0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a | Yes | 21.89K |
| Detailed-Poison | Yes | 21.05K |
| macrosteaks | No | 20.08K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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