Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 24 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 1 Sep 2026, the highest close was 43.5% on 24 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 31 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 10% on 25 Jul 2026. $2.02K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 10:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 1 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 43.5% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 537.92 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| ACara | Yes | 86.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026. If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes." If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails." If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026." If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other." For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-constitutional-referendum-20260723190646078
| Yes |
| 70 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 68.89 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 45 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 19.6 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 1.11 |
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