Analytics
Yes is at 40.5%, down 9.5 points from 50% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 21 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55.5% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 34%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 55.5% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?”.
$242.18 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.71K since listing. The order book holds $250.22, with a 19.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 66 trades, $149.69 bought Yes and $601.26 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 177 shares; the largest No position is t4zuwbigfjnrs with 274. Ten wallets hold 86% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 2:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 40.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| t4zuwbigfjnrs | No | 274 |
| AJSV | Yes | 177.06 |
| Violet Vector B233 | No | 110 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-2-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october
| mavsgseguritas |
| Yes |
| 56.51 |
| bonalddrunk | Yes | 52 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 48 |
| commeowder | No | 44.27 |
| hp210210 | No | 32 |
| just-bettor | Yes | 29.49 |
| tacor | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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