Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 48% on 10 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 108 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2025 to 28 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 48% on 10 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 20% on 11 Dec 2025. $30.07K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 9:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 108 points, 10 Dec 2025 – 28 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | 48.0% |
| 28 Mar 2026 | 1.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chefradish | Yes | 3.79K |
| Election2024 | Yes | 1.28K |
| Sane-Glucose | Yes | 261.92 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 252.43 |
| keoko | Yes | 234.99 |
| Impure-Contour | Yes | 55.02 |
| Indigo Raven BA64 | Yes | 33.33 |
| Keen Pioneer 1D85 | Yes | 28 |
| Thecloud | Yes | 25 |
| abc1231112441 | Yes | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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