Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 254 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20% on 28 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.3 points up, to 8.5% on 4 May 2026. $96.49K traded over the market's life.
141 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 254 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 16.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bite-Sized-Hunting | Yes | 3.15K |
| Informal-Floozie | Yes | 2.53K |
| hrszero | Yes | 2.09K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Resolution source: ..
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-release-optimus-by-june-30-2026
| Sexycars | No | 1.39K |
| Misty Ledger 0566 | Yes | 745.09 |
| perepuk | Yes | 715.79 |
| Regular-Proofreader | Yes | 571.86 |
| DoomPosting-Enjoyer | Yes | 499.99 |
| titi12732 | Yes | 401 |
| labistiiia | Yes | 399.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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