Analytics
Yes is at 7.5%, down 15 points from 22.5% when the market opened on 23 Jan 2026.
Across the 271 daily closes on record from 23 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33% on 23 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 9 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.2%; a month before, 10.4%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 33% on 23 Jul 2026.
$85.11 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $42.08K since listing. The order book holds $14.2K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.43K bought Yes and $7.08K bought No; the largest was a $3.73K buy of No at 92.7¢.
The largest Yes position is doubtit with 2K shares; the largest No position is dpnd with 3K. Ten wallets hold 63.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 271 points, 23 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | 22.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dpnd | No | 3.01K |
| doubtit | Yes | 1.97K |
| DuneMentat | Yes | 915.72 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-release-optimus-by-june-30-2026
| Optimus- |
| No |
| 900 |
| dahua | Yes | 758.03 |
| blxx | Yes | 430.78 |
| Besserwisser | No | 414.78 |
| Misty Harbor 2967 | Yes | 401 |
| CBOEVIX | No | 350 |
| Darling-Top | No | 348.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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