Analytics
Yes is at 4%, down 3 points from 7% when the market opened on 19 Sep 2026.
Across the 39 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 8.1% on 12 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.1%; a month before, 4.3%.
Tencent ranks fifth of the 11 outcomes in “Best Chinese AI Company end of November?”. Alibaba leads at 44.5%; Xiaomi is at 29.7%.
$444.93 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.45K since listing. The order book holds $1.43K, with a 5.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 71 trades, $14.71 bought Yes and $1.08K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Wojtek with 643 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 97.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 19 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | 7.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.25K |
| Wojtek | Yes | 643.27 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 399.76 |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-november
| Rapid Quasar 51BA |
| Yes |
| 115.66 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 90.75 |
| cigarettes | No | 80 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 45 |
| VonVonagh | Yes | 23.38 |
| Fair-Tan | No | 23.09 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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