Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 48% on 19 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 208 daily closes on record from 19 Dec 2025 to 5 Aug 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 20 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 6% on 20 Feb 2026. $3.02K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 5, 4:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 208 points, 19 Dec 2025 – 5 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Dec 2025 | 48.0% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.99K |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 183 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 170.82 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mi-10-republican-primary-winner
| win-at-all-cost | Yes | 68.6 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 67.03 |
| balthazar | Yes | 59.87 |
| alilili1 | Yes | 50 |
| cwc909 | Yes | 50 |
| Indigo Meteor 9314 | Yes | 30.8 |
| destropyer | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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