Analytics
Yes is at 72%, up 28 points from 44% when the market opened on 2 Sep 2026.
Across the 56 daily closes on record from 2 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 83% on 11 Sep 2026 and the lowest 44% on 2 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67%; a month before, 59.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 55.5% on 12 Sep 2026.
Steve Hilton is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “California Governor Election: Fresno County Winner”, ahead of Xavier Becerra at 26.5%.
$514.45 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.28K since listing. The order book holds $28.15K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 277 trades, $2.27K bought Yes and $833.11 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Prickly-Eyrie with 417 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 718. Ten wallets hold 80.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 2 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | 44.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 72.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 717.76 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 551.86 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 417.17 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate that receives the most valid votes from Fresno County in the general election for Governor of California, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Fresno County.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-fresno-county-winner
| gambler925 | Yes | 326 |
| DuneMentat | No | 255 |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 240.99 |
| bananabreakfast | Yes | 146.51 |
| 74-75 | Yes | 134.51 |
| chessplayer | Yes | 107.4 |
| eqzwe103qwie | Yes | 96.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
