Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.3%. Yes opened at 42% on 6 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 6 Mar 2026 to 24 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 42% on 6 Mar 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 14 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 4.5% on 8 Mar 2026.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 25, 5:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 6 Mar 2026 – 24 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | 42.0% |
| 24 Mar 2026 | 2.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 272.34 |
| Dallara | Yes | 88.96 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 56.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security. This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma. Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count. If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.” Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-replace-mullin-as-oklahoma-senator
| Yes |
| 54.33 |
| TjalfeHH | Yes | 50 |
| clausemaster | Yes | 26.67 |
| Crimson Signal 04B6 | Yes | 25.59 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 12.7 |
| jjzzh | Yes | 10 |
| Hinshaw | Yes | 5 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
