Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 82.5%. Yes opened at 85% on 1 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 93% on 19 Sep 2026 and the low 77.5% on 17 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 83.5% on 25 Sep 2026. $64.87K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 29, 2:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 59 points · 1 Aug 2026 – 28 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 85.0% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 82.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Humble-Prey | No | 35.27K |
| Batundi | No | 2K |
| labistiiia | No | 977.79 |
| dazhuandakui | Yes | 300 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-14
| maybebrian | No | 225.05 |
| norealtime | No | 223.54 |
| Insignificant-Puddle | No | 220.17 |
| orbitalcoins2 | No | 206.99 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | No | 180.01 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 160 |
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