Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?

techResolved

No, settled Sep 20, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$16.9K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 20, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 20 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 67% on 2 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 2 Sep 2026 to 20 Sep 2026, the highest close was 68% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 18 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 0.5% on 15 Sep 2026. $16.86K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 2 Sep 2026 – 20 Sep 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Sep 2026	67.0%
20 Sep 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Devoted-Route	Yes	270.44
VersionAnswer	Yes	200
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150
aenews6	Yes	144.34

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.