Analytics
“Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 12 Jun 2026. $28.48K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 60 daily price points from Mar 26, 2026 UTC to Jun 12, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 48.9%); 23 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 98.7% of the loaded shares; 404 recent public fills from 82 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 60 points · 26 Mar 2026 – 12 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Mar 2026 | 15.0% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.3% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 13.66K |
| Ill-Respect | Yes | 500 |
| ACara | Yes |
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-much-will-spacex-raise-in-its-ipo
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 423.25 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 365.02 |
| Dinzzzzzz | Yes | 276.42 |
| Lonely-Ketchup | Yes | 201.21 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 132.95 |
| Azure Oracle 45F0 | Yes | 100 |
| Jade Orbit 5C89 | Yes | 100 |
| pestanimal | Yes | 80.75 |