Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 8 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 31 Aug 2026, the highest close was 38% on 13 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 38% on 13 Aug 2026. $4.12K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 31 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 21.5% |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 286.95 |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 240 |
| locksnation | Yes | 175.46 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 113.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-august-2026
New to prediction markets?
| paaletee | Yes | 110 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 100 |
| Rough-Dearest-Monocle | Yes | 99 |
| Better-Browsing | Yes | 50 |
| rizaSZN | Yes | 40.68 |
| PPMT | Yes | 35 |
