Analytics
Yes is at 68.5%, up 42 points from 27% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
Across the 44 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 78.5% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 16 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 66%; a month before, 58.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 61.5% on 18 Sep 2026.
South Africa is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “AFCON 2027 Qualifying: Group D Winner”, ahead of Guinea at 26%.
$8.21K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $863.11, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 148 trades, $1.77K bought Yes and $350.01 bought No.
The largest Yes position is aliaspopeye with 859 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 94.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 27.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 68.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.46K |
| aliaspopeye | Yes | 859.3 |
| Bulky-Helo-Athlete | Yes | 503.15 |
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D at the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualification. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualification. If the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualification is cancelled, postponed after April 13, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from CAF; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/afcon-2027-qualifying-group-d-winner
| SnurrOskar | Yes | 286.5 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 76.13 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 63.4 |
| thefakenick | Yes | 45.26 |
| Wan-Cameo-Asymmetry | No | 40 |
| Hochul325 | No | 40 |
| Merry-Bonding-Piccolo | No | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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