Analytics
Trading ended on 25 Oct 2026 with Yes at 6.3%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 31 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 26% on 26 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9.5%; a month before, 8%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 11% on 27 Sep 2026.
50-55% ranks second of the 6 outcomes in “Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?”. 35-40% leads at 90%; 40-45% is at 1.1%.
$13.76K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is scorpio81 with 2.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 8K. Ten wallets hold 88.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 3:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 26 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | 26.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 6.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.99K |
| scorpio81 | Yes | 2.2K |
| Aatrohe | Yes | 1.48K |
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/serbia-election-united-serbia-vote-share
| Kovac32 |
| Yes |
| 1.18K |
| ItsBaneBaby | Yes | 656.26 |
| mantou11 | No | 528.5 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 485.41 |
| bane1979 | Yes | 355.77 |
| lava-lava | Yes | 333 |
| AlexKish | Yes | 263.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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