What is the “Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.9¢ and No at 99.2¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.9% for Yes and 99.2% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading ended on Oct 1, 2026 UTC. The venue has not yet reported the resolution, so the market is shown as awaiting resolution rather than resolved.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($1.07K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 15 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 99.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 3, 1:01 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? Final Odds

Market referencewill-september-2026-be-the-4th-or-lower-on-recordUpdated 9m ago

weatherAwaiting resolution

Ended Oct 1, 2026 UTCweatherglobal-temp

Yes

0.8%

99.2%

Observed Yes 0.85¢Observed No 99.15¢

Lifetime volume

$1.1K

Ended

Oct 1, 2026 UTC

Ended market · awaiting resolution. No trade control is shown until the venue reports a tradeable state.

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

3m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

9m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Ended

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

0.9%

The close time has elapsed, but that is not proof of resolution.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

99%

Yes / No shares

890.05 / 890.04

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

Wallets

Loaded notional

$1.04K

No buy at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Oct 3, 1:10 PM UTC

Points

Move

-48 pts

Range

0.9% - 49.0%

Aug 29, 12:00 AM UTC to Oct 3, 1:10 PM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Oct 3, 1:10 PM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Oct 3, 1:10 PM UTC	0.9%	0.9%
Oct 3, 12:00 AM UTC	0.9%	0.9%
Oct 2, 12:00 AM UTC	0.9%	0.9%

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.9¢ and No at 99.2¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.9% for Yes and 99.2% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading ended on Oct 1, 2026 UTC. The venue has not yet reported the resolution, so the market is shown as awaiting resolution rather than resolved.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($1.07K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Oct 3, 1:10 PM UTC

0.9%

Oct 3, 12:00 AM UTC

0.9%

Oct 2, 12:00 AM UTC

0.9%