Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 29% on 24 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 24 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31.5% on 25 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 23.5% on 26 Mar 2026. $604.28K traded over the market's life.
171 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 6:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 24 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Mar 2026 | 29.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Watery-Grasshopper | Yes | 28.12K |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 11.11K |
| Foolish-Webpage | Yes | 6.01K |
| joeBanana2 | Yes | 5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by-april-30
| ephemeral-tape | Yes | 4.05K |
| Gaseous-Metric | Yes | 4.03K |
| DrearyCritic18364592 | Yes | 3.5K |
| Earnest-Twitter | Yes | 3.12K |
| winnerwinnerchickendinne | Yes | 2.99K |
| V.D.M | Yes | 2K |
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