Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 51% on 12 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 325 daily closes on record from 12 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 74.5% on 5 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 43% on 17 Jun 2025. $338.53K traded over the market's life.
116 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 325 points, 12 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2025 | 51.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rivermarkets | Yes | 4.69K |
| lissartter | Yes | 604.5 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 300 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-sam-altman-get-openai-equity-in-2025
New to prediction markets?
| cowcat | Yes | 294 |
| Notable-Median | Yes | 250 |
| 19283746 | Yes | 204.99 |
| shameonu-pol-ymarket | Yes | 199.99 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 179.36 |
| moneyman777 | Yes | 142.86 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 142.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
