Analytics
Yes is at 4.3%, down 46 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 117 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 3.9% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 10% on 2 Jul 2026.
$1.58K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $463.24K since listing. The order book holds $64.98K, with a 0.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $8.39K bought Yes and $48.03K bought No; the largest was a $14.16K sell of No at 95.0¢.
The largest Yes position is vsesoso with 84.4K shares; the largest No position is kevtp with 65K. Ten wallets hold 70.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 117 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.3% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025
| gorovi |
| No |
| 32.39K |
| keribit | No | 30K |
| Burly-Temperature | No | 28.16K |
| gatorr | Yes | 21K |
| whig | No | 20K |
| UniversalCarrier | Yes | 14.74K |
| cataction | Yes | 11K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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