Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?

geopoliticsResolved

Yes, settled Sep 22, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$70.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 22, 2026 UTC

Topic roomRussia–Ukraine

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 22 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 87.5%. Yes opened at 65.5% on 20 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2026 to 22 Sep 2026, the highest close was 87.5% on 22 Sep 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 21 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 74 points up, to 87.5% on 22 Sep 2026. $70.41K traded over the market's life.

67 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 20 Aug 2026 – 22 Sep 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
20 Aug 2026	65.5%
22 Sep 2026	87.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
B1zz	No	4.51K
ACara	No	1.22K
balthazar	No	1.07K

10 of 67 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.