Analytics
Yes is at 43.5%, down 35 points from 78.5% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 43.5% on 29 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Russia capture Svitle by...?”.
$216.86 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.23K, with a 65.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 72 shares; the largest No position is MusakaKing with 36.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 78.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 43.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 71.6 |
| MusakaKing | No | 35.71 |
| Haradwaith | No | 30.1 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Dirty-Burn |
| Yes |
| 20 |
| Gladius7 | No | 20 |
| thunderquack | No | 11.11 |
| Golden Kestrel D399 | Yes | 5.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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