
Yes is at 5.3%, down 27 points from 31.9% when the market opened on 7 Aug 2026.
Across the 80 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.9% on 26 Aug 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13.9%; a month before, 8.7%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 24.3% on 7 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Russia capture Svitle by...?”.
$127.35 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $55.96K since listing. The order book holds $2.71K, with a 2.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 481 trades, $4.48K bought Yes and $14.14K bought No; the largest was a $1.6K buy of No at 91.4¢.
The largest Yes position is tightpincer with 2.2K shares; the largest No position is TralaleloTralalala with 2.7K. Ten wallets hold 68.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 7 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 31.9% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TralaleloTralalala | No | 2.69K |
| GaioMario | No | 2.5K |
| tightpincer | Yes | 2.24K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| controls |
| No |
| 1.75K |
| Rybkaoi | Yes | 1.73K |
| DumplingBMF | Yes | 1.61K |
| Impure-Alarm | Yes | 1.03K |
| FoolingAround | No | 703.01 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 617.03 |
| longdated-poli | Yes | 615.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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