Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 5.5 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 4 Oct 2026.
Across the 25 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12% on 5 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.2%.
It is one of 5 markets under “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?”.
$374.88 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.68K since listing. The order book holds $9.14K, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 57 trades, $89.9 bought Yes and $945.58 bought No.
The largest Yes position is moneyBalll with 696 shares; the largest No position is AuthenticDemigod with 650. Ten wallets hold 89.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 4 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| moneyBalll | Yes | 695.75 |
| AuthenticDemigod | No | 650 |
| Fickle-Halt-Window | No | 348.74 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| ViscaElBarca |
| Yes |
| 150 |
| Volodymyr-Zelensky | Yes | 139.29 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 90.63 |
| TheRealWarMonger | No | 86.38 |
| Dxqdxq | Yes | 80.39 |
| Solar Scout 9770 | Yes | 62.25 |
| nedsta | No | 62 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka-by
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