Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 1 May 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 16% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 11.5% on 25 Apr 2026. $52.83K traded over the market's life.
55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 6:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 10.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Azrarn | Yes | 8.89K |
| JoeBlack01 | Yes | 2.73K |
| winesom | Yes | 2.24K |
| bolla-577 | Yes | 392.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 316.05 |
| Unpleasant-Rip | Yes | 225.02 |
| AluV | Yes | 210.04 |
| BrayanFury | Yes | 171.98 |
| ACara | Yes | 138.02 |
| HyperPoor | Yes | 132 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-hryshyne-by-april-30
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
