Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, about where the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 278 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the price held at 0.4%. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%; a month before, 0.1%.
Richard Grenell ranks 16th of the 16 outcomes in “Venezuela leader end of 2026?”. Nicolás Maduro leads at 84.1%; Delcy Rodríguez is at 13.5%.
$32.81M traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $131.28K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $299.46 bought Yes and $7.54K bought No; the largest was a $1.24K buy of No at 99.9¢.
The largest Yes position is Lunar Sphinx 02CD with 40K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 374.5K. Ten wallets hold 72.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 62 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 278 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 374.47K |
| Lunar Sphinx 02CD | Yes | 40K |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 26.97K |
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026
3 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| thecaricature | Yes | 24.21K |
| Jaat715 | Yes | 21K |
| Threadbare-Astronomy | Yes | 14.82K |
| qwen300.fund | Yes | 13.85K |
| Capital-Basketball | Yes | 10K |
| CoffeeLover | Yes | 9.78K |
| Sand-Win | Yes | 9.43K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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