Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97%. Yes opened at 41% on 27 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 130 daily closes on record from 27 Mar 2026 to 12 Aug 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61.5% on 7 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.3% on 24 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 41.5% on 29 Mar 2026. $1.08K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 130 points, 27 Mar 2026 – 12 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Mar 2026 | 41.0% |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 3.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 443.01 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 176.52 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 100.32 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/al-01-republican-primary-winner
| Yes |
| 91.2 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 82.79 |
| cowcat | Yes | 48 |
| niglette | Yes | 23.22 |
| Torbald2895 | Yes | 9.09 |
| Royal Vector E768 | Yes | 8.72 |
| 48xsds | Yes | 0.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
