What is the “Will RFK drop out before November?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will RFK drop out before November? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 23 Aug 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2024. In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Kennedy from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes". If Kennedy does not announce his withdrawal or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race by the specified time, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from RFK Jr. or his…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

10 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Aug 24, 11:33 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-drop-out-before-november) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Will RFK drop out before November?

Market referencewill-rfk-drop-out-before-novemberUpdated Aug 24, 2024 UTC

politicsResolved

Yes · settled Aug 23, 2024 UTCpoliticsdeprec-us-election

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$698.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 23, 2024 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Aug 24, 2024 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Aug 24, 2024 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

3.44 / 33.28K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

244

Loaded notional

$314.97K

No buy at 0.5%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Aug 23, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

+39 pts

Range

55.5% - 98.2%

Aug 17, 12:00 AM UTC to Aug 23, 12:00 AM UTC

TradesRecent market trade tape linked back into trader pages.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
Nucclear	buy	No	0.5%	1K	Aug 23, 11:27 PM UTC
Nucclear	buy	No

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will RFK drop out before November?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will RFK drop out before November? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 23 Aug 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2024. In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Kennedy from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes". If Kennedy does not announce his withdrawal or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race by the specified time, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from RFK Jr. or his…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Side

Outcome

Price

Time

Nucclear

buy

0.5%

Aug 23, 11:27 PM UTC

Nucclear

buy