Analytics
Yes is at 37.5%, about where the market opened on 8 Aug 2026.
Across the 80 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 7 Sep 2026 and the lowest 24.5% on 30 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 33.5%; a month before, 43%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 24.5% on 30 Aug 2026.
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “Texas Senate and Governor Combo”, ahead of Dems sweep at 35.5%.
$7K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $19.01K since listing. The order book holds $31.54K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.6K bought Yes and $5.29K bought No; the largest was a $1.04K buy of No at 60.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Prickly-Eyrie with 2.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.7K. Ten wallets hold 84.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 38.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 37.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.65K |
| K00ldr4g0n | No | 2.54K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 2.23K |
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Texas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-and-governor-combo-20260807213940452
| Gaditima |
| Yes |
| 1.62K |
| temploazteca | Yes | 1.01K |
| bananabreakfast | Yes | 479.06 |
| HardradaH | Yes | 440.45 |
| Little-Anguish | Yes | 366.02 |
| Single-Challenge | Yes | 306.22 |
| G.Hchen | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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