Analytics
Yes is at 31%, up 14 points from 17% when the market opened on 26 Sep 2026.
Across the 30 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 17% on 26 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 24.5%; a month before, 25.5%.
$646.88 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $10.2K since listing. The order book holds $28.43K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 167 trades, $986.9 bought Yes and $2K bought No.
The largest Yes position is DumbMoney2222 with 1K shares; the largest No position is StarMaster with 500. Ten wallets hold 81.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 26 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | 17.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 31.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DumbMoney2222 | Yes | 1K |
| StarMaster | No | 500.4 |
| Manchild | No | 432 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-lose-any-safe-republican-senate-race
| h038596027355 |
| No |
| 317.64 |
| smellyEllie | Yes | 249.99 |
| RadioCCOD | Yes | 221.65 |
| coypu | No | 209.62 |
| Antony82 | Yes | 200 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 172.06 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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