Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 22% on 18 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 27.5% on 19 Aug 2026 and the low 0.1% on 29 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 4% on 20 Aug 2026. $1.28K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 49 points · 18 Aug 2026 – 5 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 22.0% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.68K |
| balthazar | Yes | 700 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 100 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ceara-senate-election-2nd-place
| dbschenka | Yes | 93.5 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 32 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 20.92 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20 |
| northdrawer | Yes | 20 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
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