Analytics
Yes is at 5.1%, down 21 points from 26.5% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
Across the 18 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37.5% on 12 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.4% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 18.5% on 13 Oct 2026.
PVEM ranks second of the 6 outcomes in “State of Mexico Congress Election Winner”. Morena leads at 94%; PRI is at 2.9%.
$1.94K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $6.54K, with a 5.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 43 trades, $158.7 bought Yes and $787.52 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 537 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 761.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 5:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 26.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 760.75 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 536.74 |
| archaic | No | 149.91 |
Legislative elections to elect the 75 members of the Congress of the State of Mexico are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Mexico as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral del Estado de México. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral del Estado de México, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of the State of Mexico and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral del Estado de México (https://www.ieem.org.mx/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/state-of-mexico-congress-election-winner
| Haradwaith | Yes | 126 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 112.57 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 108 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 30 |
| Carabao | Yes | 10 |
| cigarettes | No | 10 |
| tzquantalpha001 | No | 4.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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