Question 1

What is the “Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Who will be the next Pope?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to the name of the next person elected to be the bishop of Rome after Pope Francis. If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No new Pope in 2025". If a person is elected to be the next bishop of Rome but declines the position, it will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The market associated with a named person will not resolve to "Yes" or "No" until the next bishop of Rome is elected and accepts the Papacy. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus…

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($1.29M) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 251 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 93.2% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated May 10, 12:22 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-pter-erd-be-the-next-pope) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Bucket	Close	Mid
May 8, 12:00 AM	6.6%	6.6%
May 7, 12:00 AM	6.7%	6.7%
May 6, 12:00 AM	7.7%	7.7%

Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?

Who will be the next Pope?

Questions about this market