Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 12 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 213 daily closes on record from 12 Feb 2026 to 5 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 12 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 44.6% on 29 Apr 2026. $1.31K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 213 points, 12 Feb 2026 – 5 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | 46.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.58K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 149.51 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 105 |
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| 30sdfdsf | Yes | 102.66 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 100 |
| maedina | Yes | 85.17 |
| esilveira | Yes | 70.5 |
| 52adsa | Yes | 64.97 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 26.04 |
| niglette | Yes | 22.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
