Will only OP_CAT be activated in 2025?

Two major proposals to upgrade the Bitcoin network are currently under consideration, OP_CTV (BIP 119) and OP_CAT (BIP 347). This market will resolve according to whichever of the following options happens by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If one upgrade is activated, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" until the resolution time has passed, and the other upgrade has not been activated. This market may not be resolved to "Neither" until the resolution time has passed and neither upgrade has been activated. If both upgrades are activated at any point, this market may resolve to "Both" immediately. This market resolves based on whether Bitcoin activates OP_CTV, OP_CAT, or both by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. “Activated” means the opcode is live and enforced on mainnet as part of Bitcoin’s consensus rules. Only the chain recognized as Bitcoin by the economic majority counts, based on hashpower, BTC ticker retention, and adoption by major exchanges, wallets, and infrastructure. Soft forks count toward this market's resolution. Hard forks only count if the fork becomes the dominant BTC chain (e.g., not a minority fork like Bitcoin Cash). Testnet, signet, or forks with minority support do not count. The resolution source for this market will be public sources such as Bitcoin Core, dev mailing lists, and major ecosystem infrastructure.