Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.5%. Yes opened at 69.5% on 9 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2026 to 14 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 96.5% on 14 Aug 2026 and the lowest 68.5% on 24 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 68.5% on 24 Jul 2026. $38.39K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 9 Jul 2026 – 14 Aug 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | 69.5% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 96.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheBigMuscle | No | 2.01K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 617.99 |
| ydxistheking | No | 209 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/clacton-by-election-margin-of-victory-20260708144145603
| No |
| 125 |
| BKno95 | No | 100 |
| runechiters | No | 100 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| balthazar | No | 100 |
| stephansmith2004 | No | 83.18 |
| HerrieDavis | No | 57.69 |
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