Analytics
Yes is at 58%, up 7 points from 51% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 320 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.3% on 6 May 2026 and the lowest 17.8% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 38.3%; a month before, 62.3%. Its largest one-day move was 48 points up, to 81.5% on 2 Jan 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Which artists will release a new song in 2026?”.
$49.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $15.32K since listing. The order book holds $354.86, with a 35.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 256 trades, $1.67K bought Yes and $4.5K bought No; the largest was a $2.69K buy of No at 86.0¢.
The largest Yes position is predictiondiablo with 400 shares; the largest No position is KimchiCapital with 904. Ten wallets hold 80.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 320 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 51.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 35.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KimchiCapital | No | 903.93 |
| predictiondiablo | Yes | 400.04 |
| Snoopy121 | Yes | 180 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026
| Xyzeric |
| Yes |
| 179.98 |
| idonthaveanintro | Yes | 179 |
| Garmonbozia | Yes | 148.88 |
| Coral Vector 08BD | Yes | 104 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 100 |
| limearbs | Yes | 90 |
| Keen Maven C6FC | No | 71.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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