Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 14 points from 28.5% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 315 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (36 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64.5% on 15 Feb 2026 and the lowest 9% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%; a month before, 18%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 56% on 26 Nov 2025.
Frank Ocean ranks third of the 3 outcomes in “Which artists will release a new song in 2026?”. JAY-Z leads at 44%; Nicki Minaj is at 36.3%.
$12.54K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $334.32, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 192 trades, $131.02 bought Yes and $765.26 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 163 shares; the largest No position is Saldivva with 235. Ten wallets hold 79% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 315 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 28.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Saldivva | No | 234.89 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 162.52 |
| valentovastan | No | 95 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-release-a-new-song-in-2026
| solenaige |
| No |
| 90.38 |
| bananabreakfast | Yes | 84.39 |
| negativePNL | Yes | 65.6 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 37.65 |
| limearbs | No | 37.65 |
| PolyJaguar | Yes | 25.99 |
| bittersahu | Yes | 23.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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